International currency market events

Latest events in currency markets warrant for a look of concern:

USD/RUB EUR/RUB USD/INR EUR/INR
RUB/INR
 2/ Apr/2015  57.62  62.02 2.14 66.89 1.08
16/ Apr/2015 49.76 53.28 62.32 66.74 1.23
Absolute change 7.86 8.74 -0.18 0.15  0.15
% change 14 14 -0.3 0.22   14

Analysis:    

  • Over a 16 day period, USD and EUR have fallen 14% against RUB.
  • USD/INR and EUR/INR have remained within 1% change.
  • INR/RUB has fallen 14%

And if you think I should take a longer term view with this analysis, think again. Because the businesses that make the economy are bust or boom in shorter cycles where the money speaks.

Moral of the story:    

Mature currencies like USD and EUR are being managed recklessly so they can fall / rise more than 10% within 2 weeks. INR is running in a decent manner so the economy and business goes on without much speculation. RUB is being managed with emotions and is a risky asset on both sides of the trade.

What to do?:   Bet on Asia.

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Categories: #finance, money

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