Latest events in currency markets warrant for a look of concern:
- Over a 16 day period, USD and EUR have fallen 14% against RUB.
- USD/INR and EUR/INR have remained within 1% change.
- INR/RUB has fallen 14%
And if you think I should take a longer term view with this analysis, think again. Because the businesses that make the economy are bust or boom in shorter cycles where the money speaks.
Moral of the story:
Mature currencies like USD and EUR are being managed recklessly so they can fall / rise more than 10% within 2 weeks. INR is running in a decent manner so the economy and business goes on without much speculation. RUB is being managed with emotions and is a risky asset on both sides of the trade.
What to do?: Bet on Asia.